SL
Public post
Simon Lee
Sep 2026 • linkedin
Post excerpt
It is extremely unhelpful for *everyone* that the UK's Environment Secretary has decided to start giving a deterministic forecast for what this year's Super El Niño will do to British weather. I can only assume this is, yet again, a confusion of probabilistic prediction and determinism. No, the presence of El Niño does not definitively mean the UK *will* see drier summers and wetter winters. It might make such things more likely, but perhaps it could also be argued that such a teleconnection is so nuanced and ofte…
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